CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

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CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  Admin on Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:50 pm

Metod diskontovanja dividendi je najpoznatiji i najviše korišćen metod za analizu vrednosti akcija. Njegove osnove postavili su Graham i Dod u knjizi «Analiza hartija od vrednosti» još 1934. godine. Metod se zasniva na određivanju cene akcija kao zbira sadašnjih vrednosti svih očekivanih budućih prihoda. Prevođenje budućih iznosa dividende na sadašnju vrednost vrši se pomoću diskontne stope r koja izražava dve stvari:

1. vremensku vrednost novca i
2. rizik očekivanih budućih dividendi.
Formula odražava bazičnu jednačinu metoda DDM. Ona pokazuje da je realna cena akcija zbir svih očekivanih budućih dividendi koje će njeni vlasnici naplatiti u budućnosti. Postoje dve vrste akcija pri investiranju, a to su:

1. akcije rasta – kod kojih su očekivanja investitora da će dobiti veće prihode od budućeg rasta cena i
2. akcije prihoda – kod kojih su očekivanja investitora da će dobiti veće prihode kroz isplatu dividende.

Metodi rasta dividendi – su grupa modela koji se zasnivaju na pretpostavci o rastu dividendi. Ovi metodi u praksi su popularan i čest način zastupljen u raznim analizama. Po ovom modelu stvarna vrednost akcija je zapravo sadašnja vrednost budućih dividendi. Kod ovog metoda prisutna je dilema koja se temelji na izboru da li diskontovati dividende ili ukupan prihod. Ova dilema rešena je tako što se iz ukupnog prihoda vrši nadoknada troškova, isplaćuju dividende i vrše se izdvajanja u fondove. Investitorima i akcionarima važnija je dividenda od ukupnog prihoda, dok će izdvajanje u fondove doprineti u budućnosti povećanju dividende. Zastupnici ovog metoda smatraju da je ispravnije pratiti isplatu dividende na kraju godine. «Osnovnu odrednicu DDM metoda predstavlja posmatranje cene akcija kao zbir sadašnjih vrednosti svih očekivanih budućih dividendi. Za diskontovanje svih budućih cena dividendi koristi se diskontovana stopa (d) koja izražava: a) vremensku dimenziju vrednosti novca i b) zbir očekivanih budućih dividendi»
Ako sa Div označimo dividendu, sa d, diskontovanu stopu, po metodu DDM cena akcije CA računa se na sledeći način:



Po visini i dinamici stope rasta dividende, postoje tri slučaja:
1. Nulti rast dividende je najjednostavniji slučaj. Zasniva se na tome da dividenda uopšte neće rasti i da će vlasnik ostvariti fiksne isplate u budućnosti.

Div1 = Div2= Div n
CA = Div / d
Ovaj metod koristi se za izračunavanje cene prefercijalnih akcija sa fiksnom dividendom.
2. Konstantan rast dividendi nije uobičajen, smatra se da je neostvarljiv zbog čitavog niza prisutnih razloga (firma ima različite faze razvoja, tržište je nepredvidljivo, prisutna je inflacija, ukupni prihodi nisu do kraja predvidivi). Zbog svega navedenog realno je očekivati da se dividende menjaju (rastu) i to putem dve varijante. Dividenda može rasti po konstantnoj stopi:
Div1 = Div0 x (1+s)
Divn= Div0 x (1+s)n

CA = Div0 Σ Div /(1+d) i


Ovaj slučaj uključuje rast dividende i nešto je realniji od prethodnog, iako je pretpostavka o konstantnom rastu prinosa investitora, teško ostvarljiva, te je primena ovog metoda umanjena.

4. Model višestrukog rasta zasniva se na pretpostavci da se dividende isplaćuju po stopama rasta koje su različite po intervalima. U analizu se umesto konstantne stope rasta dividende (s), uključuje realnija premisa po kojoj su godišnje stope rasta dividende različite s1, s2,s3... «Matematički izraz za izračunavanje cena akcija, ako se uključi model višestrukog rasta dividendi, može biti vrlo složen zbog nejednakih stopa koje bi trebalo proceniti. Praktično, za svaku godinu se vrši aproksimacija rasta dividende i odgovarajuća stopa se uključuje u model. To zahteva složen postupak izračunavanja i čitav postupak dobija naglašenu matematičku dimenziju u kojoj se zamagljuje ekonomska suština pristupa».6)

Sva tri navedena modela temelje se na rastu dividende. Međutim, predviđanje rasta dividendi predstavlja nezahvalan posao, jer rast dividende u praksi nije uvek ostvariv, bez obzira na želje akcionara. Stoga, osnovni nedostatak sva tri navedena modela (kad dolazi do pada dividende) je ograničenost njihove primene. Akcije svom vlasniku ne donose unapred poznat prihod, već je on uslovljen uspešnošću poslovanja emitenta i načina raspodele ostvarene dobiti. Ove hartije emituju akcionarska društva. Kako u ovim društvima postoje razlike u pogledu osnivačkog kapitala i vlasničkih prava, ove akcije dobijaju i različita imena. Tako se akcije čiji je emitent akcionarsko društvo u Velikoj Britaniji nazivaju «share», dok im je u Nemačkoj dat naziv «aktie», u SAD «stock» itd. Akcionarsko društvo je u obavezi da vodi knjigu akcionara koja sadrži podatke o akcijama i akcionarima. Akcije se klasifikuju na različite načine i klasifikacija zavisi od kriterijuma koji se uzme kao merodavan.

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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  paganizonda on Tue Dec 14, 2010 12:25 am

MIES, Switzerland – The IOC says an inquiry prompted by FIFA corruption allegations can seek sanctions against members implicated in wrongdoing before they joined the Olympic body.
The International Olympic Committee President Jacques Rogge said Monday that the organization has strict ethics rules for dealing with any member who "has become tainted" after past allegations are proven.
"The whole issue is about the reputation of the IOC potentially being tainted if facts are proven for a person that was not an IOC member at that time," Rogge said.
The IOC ethics commission asked the BBC two weeks ago to pass on evidence aired in a TV documentary alleging that African soccer president Issa Hayatou took a kickback from FIFA's former marketing agency in 1995.
Hayatou became an IOC member in 2001.
The Cameroonian official declined to be interviewed for the BBC's "Panorama" program. The day after the broadcast, Hayatou said the payment of about $20,000 was a donation to the African Football Confederation.
"We have asked for clarification from the BBC and then the ethics commission will look into the matter, and will then decide which persons have to be investigated," Rogge said.
The IOC president did not confirm which members are involved, citing the need to "respect the total autonomy and confidentiality of the work of the ethics commission."
The BBC investigation also alleged that secret payments were received by former FIFA president Joao Havelange. The 94-year-old Brazilian is the longest-serving IOC member with 47 years in the movement.
FIFA President Sepp Blatter, who joined the IOC in 1999, was not accused by the BBC of receiving kickbacks.
Rogge said Monday that Blatter kept him informed in recent weeks as FIFA dealt with accusations of bribe-taking and vote-rigging in the process of choosing hosts for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
Two voters from FIFA's executive committee, plus four past members, were suspended from all soccer duties by its ethics court, which was created in 2006 in the image of the IOC's own ethics body.
FIFA refused to open its own ethics probe into the BBC allegations, saying a Swiss criminal court dealt with the matter when executives from the marketing agency went on trial two years ago. They were cleared of most fraud charges relating to the agency's financial collapse in 2001.
Rogge said Blatter understands how the IOC's ethics investigation will proceed.
"Let me tell you that Mr. Blatter knows exactly in detail the system of the IOC as he is an IOC member himself," he said.
Rogge said the ethics panel would soon report to the IOC executive board, which would decide if sanctions are appropriate.
"The commission is working with due diligence," he said. "In my humble opinion, it will not last for months."


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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  paganizonda on Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:41 am

U.S special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke died Monday night after undergoing surgery over the weekend to repair a tear in his aorta. Holbrooke's death comes as President Barack Obama is finalizing a strategy review of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Holbrooke, who was 69-years-old, died at The George Washington University hospital in Washington.

The veteran diplomat had been taken to the hospital on Friday after collapsing during a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

President Obama called Holbrooke a "towering figure in American foreign policy."

Among Holbrooke's major accomplishments was helping bring about the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords that ended the war in Bosnia.

Under former President Bill Clinton, he represented the United States at the United Nations.

During a Congressional committee hearing last year, Holbrooke, the U.S special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, defended the Obama administration's policy in the region.

"It is not easy, I agree with you," said Richard Holbrooke. "It is not cheap. Having seen wars on three continents, having been shot at for my country, I sure do not feel comfortable in a situation where you ask brave, young, American men and women to risk their lives and sometimes pay the ultimate sacrifice."

On Tuesday, President Obama will be without Holbrooke as he meets with advisors to assess the past year's progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The overall strategy review is expected on Thursday.



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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:12 am

A guy took his girlfriend to her first football game. Afterward he asked her how she liked the game.

"I liked it, but I couldn't understand why they were killing each other for 25 cents," she said.

"What do you mean?" he asked.

"Well, everyone kept yelling, 'Get the quarter back!'"




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:28 am

Digger Phelps' Words of Wisdom

From the NCAA Tournament:

"Basketball is a game of two halves."

"We have to remember that whoever scores the most points by the end wins."

"You're either a good team or a bad team, and they played somewhere in the middle."

"He's like all great players -- not great yet."

"You don't score 86 points without being able to shoot."




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:34 am

Top NFL Complaints

1. After shooting the blank gun to end the half, the Dallas Cowboy players start shooting back with live ammunition.

2. Calling "heads or tails" but never getting any. . . "head" or "tail".

3. Players get "the wave". . . refs get "the finger".

4. Anyone who makes a call against the Detroit Lions risks pissing off their last remaining fan.

5. With Reggie White retired, the penalty for "Illegal use of a racial slur" is meaningless.

6. Just when we thought it was safe to be an NFL Ref, we have to go back to frickin' CLEVELAND!!!

7. Thanks to instant replay, picking nose during a game is twice as risky.

8. Everyone else gets to wear their Autumn colors, but for me it's black and white week after week after week!

9. Don King only bribes boxing judges.

10. Official rule books not made in Braille.

11. I'm the one that everybody wants to kill, so where's MY helmet and pads?!



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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:57 am

The schoolteacher was taking her first golfing lesson.

"Is the word spelt p-u-t or p-u-t-t?'' she asked the instructor.

"P-u-t-t is correct,'' he replied.

"Put means to place a thing where you want it. Putt means merely a vain attempt to do the same thing."




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:36 am

Mommy, Mommy! I've lost my fingers!

Shut up and eat your french fries!

Mommy, Mommy! When will we have this nice yellow pudding again?

Shut up, you know that grandma's leg is no longer infested.

Mommy, Mommy! Why is my hair so slimy?

Shut up, you little snot.

Mommy, Mommy! I don't like Sister!

Shut up, and keep eating!

Mommy, Mommy! I'd like to play marbles now!

Keep quiet, you can't use Grandpa's glass eye today!




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:41 am

Mommy, Mommy! Daddy's running down the street!

Shut up and step on the gas!

Mommy, Mommy! I don't want to see Niagara Falls!

Shut up and get back in the barrel!

Mommy, Mommy! Is this the way to make pickles?

Shut up and get back in the barrel!

Mommy, Mommy! Daddy went through the meat grinder!

Shut up and eat your hamburger!

Mommy, Mommy! How will we ever find Daddy on this golf course?

Shut up and search the sand traps!






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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 10:57 pm

Two hunters got a pilot to fly them into the far north for elk hunting. They were quite successful in their venture and bagged six big bucks. The pilot came back, as arranged, to pick them up. They started loading their gear into the plane, including the six elk. But the pilot objected and he said, "The plane can only take four of your elk; you will have to leave two behind." They argued with him; the year before they had shot six and the pilot had allowed them to put all aboard. The plane was the same model and capacity. Reluctantly, the pilot finally permitted them to put all six aboard. But when the attempted to take off and leave the valley, the little plane could not make it and they crashed into the wilderness.

Climbing out of the wreckage, one hunter said to the other, "Do you know where we are?"

"I think so," replied the other hunter. I think this is about the same place where we landed last year!"




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  paganizonda on Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:31 pm

The State Department said Tuesday the post of U.S. envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan will be continued following the death of the job's first occupant, Richard Holbrooke. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hailed Holbrooke as an indispensable colleague.

Obama administration officials describe Holbrooke, a 40-year diplomatic veteran, as virtually irreplaceable. They say the structure he built, though, as the first U.S. envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan will remain in place, and that the post he pioneered two years ago will remain.

Holbrooke's deputy, senior diplomat Frank Ruggiero, has assumed the late envoy's duties on an acting basis, and took his place Tuesday at key White House meetings capping the Obama administration's soon-to-be-completed Afghan policy review.

A senior State Department official told reporters a replacement for Holbrooke will named in due course, and that Ruggiero, a former senior official in the department's bureau of political-military affairs, cannot be excluded as a possible successor.

Tributes to Holbrooke continue to flow in from U.S. political figures and officials around the world. President Barack Obama called him a "unique figure" and a "true giant of American foreign policy."

In her first public remarks Tuesday on Holbrooke's death, Clinton called him a valued friend, a trusted mentor and an indispensable colleague to generations of U.S. diplomats.

"It has been remarkable to see the tributes coming in from around the world," said Clinton. "The word that keeps being said over and over again is 'statesman.' It's a word that we don't use much anymore. But Richard embodied it. A man who loved our country and dedicated his life to serving not only our people, but the cause of peace, a diplomat who used every tool in the toolbox and someone who accomplished so much on behalf of so many."

Holbrooke suffered a ruptured aorta during a meeting with Clinton last Friday and died late Monday at a hospital a few blocks from the State Department.

The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Holbrooke's last words, to doctors preparing him for surgery late Friday, were that "you've got to stop this war in Afghanistan."

State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley addressed the issue at a news briefing, saying Holbrooke's comments were part of a light-hearted exchange with doctors attending him as opposed to criticism of U.S. war policy.

"At one point, the medical team said you've got to relax," said Crowley. "And Richard said: 'I can't relax, I'm worried about Afghanistan and Pakistan.' And then after some additional exchanges, the medical team finally said: 'We'll try to fix this challenge while you're undergoing surgery.' And he [Holbrooke] said: 'Yeah. See if you can take care of that, including ending the war.'"

Crowley said his version of the exchange was reconstructed from accounts of several people present at Holbrooke's bedside, and reflected the late envoy's "singular focus" on bringing U.S. efforts in the region to a successful conclusion.


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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:41 pm

Patient: Doctor, I think I swallowed a pillow.

Doctor: How do you feel?

Patient: A little down in the mouth.




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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Wed Dec 15, 2010 12:08 am

1. Do not expect your doctor to share your discomfort.

Involvement with the patient's suffering might cause him to lose valuable scientific objectivity.

2. Be cheerful at all times.

Your doctor leads a busy and trying life and requires all the gentleness and reassurance he can get.

3. Try to suffer from the disease for which you are being treated.

Remember that your doctor has a professional reputation to uphold.

4. Do not complain if the treatment fails to bring relief.

You must believe that your doctor has achieved a deep insight into the true nature of your illness, which transcends any mere permanent disability you may have experienced.

5. Never ask your doctor to explain what he is doing or why he is doing it



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Re: CIJENA AKCIJA NA OSNOVU DISKONTOVANIH DIVIDENDI

Post  BigBoy1292 on Wed Dec 15, 2010 12:11 am

Patient: Doctor, I have a serious memory problem. I can't remember anything!

Doctor: So, since when did you have this problem?

Patient: What problem?
A variation
Doctor: Did you take those pills I gave you to improve your memory?

Patient: What pills?




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